Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 4.531502 5.417513 6.401334 7.570562 8.917815 10.416967 12.206639
2025-03-09 3.053064 4.185900 5.590757 7.441188 9.792167 12.655524 16.379801
2025-03-16 2.146094 3.327604 4.942417 7.264059 10.461354 14.647911 20.470462
2025-03-23 1.724590 2.970054 4.816705 7.668095 11.854605 17.653304 26.139469
2025-03-30 1.358517 2.583062 4.541094 7.766299 12.778018 20.067126 31.209389
2025-04-06 1.077377 2.250619 4.263877 7.782069 13.534536 22.269401 36.137413
2025-04-13 0.860916 1.969196 4.002772 7.757376 14.188568 24.340136 41.009470
2025-04-20 0.776155 1.912376 4.113230 8.358079 15.898277 28.162180 48.825158
2025-04-27 0.664756 1.770920 4.037202 8.607337 17.027890 31.137892 55.522535
2025-05-04 0.581157 1.666755 4.010324 8.933578 18.310606 34.448841 62.975397
2025-05-11 0.483260 1.501474 3.826087 8.924592 18.976378 36.758727 68.925075
2025-05-18 0.381977 1.296261 3.514364 8.608529 19.023938 37.986425 73.116192
2025-05-25 0.293119 1.096902 3.180390 8.207303 18.887832 38.925128 76.975101
2025-06-01 0.240066 0.981904 3.022035 8.162393 19.453963 41.189891 83.343036
2025-06-08 0.192051 0.863496 2.827996 8.003768 19.764935 42.999277 89.015872
2025-06-15 0.175131 0.843948 2.890129 8.455043 21.405538 47.456287 99.808618
2025-06-22 0.149194 0.780959 2.818021 8.566306 22.315421 50.549705 108.237330
2025-06-29 0.124870 0.713128 2.716018 8.585073 23.017912 53.276957 116.131315
2025-07-06 0.103587 0.647346 2.604066 8.558793 23.610957 55.818994 123.812322
2025-07-13 0.099694 0.658521 2.738134 9.212114 25.847085 61.874128 138.657056
2025-07-20 0.088463 0.629395 2.733868 9.483033 27.198707 66.170357 150.254718
2025-07-27 0.079946 0.609857 2.757988 9.837411 28.783408 71.054053 163.269060
2025-08-03 0.067092 0.559477 2.661465 9.827663 29.469813 74.059065 172.653058